Good Morning
Today I will talk about China. Before that, let’s take a look at what happened in the morning.
🧑💼 #JPMorganChase is hiring. President #Daniel Pinto said the bank is seeing "strong growth" and "all elements point to a strong year". “We will definitely be adding staff this year.”
🛢️ #BP appoints #MurrayAuchincloss as its permanent CEO, four months after he was appointed on an interim basis.
💰A #Blackstone real estate trust targeting wealthy investors lost 0.5% in 2023, its worst return since launching in 2017.
🇨🇭 Speaking in #Davos, sending traders scrambling to adjust bets on rate cuts,
#ChristinaLagarde said the European Central Bank's aggressive pricing of easing policy would not help fight inflation. She did say the ECB would "likely" lower interest rates in the summer or summer.
🎰 Some strategists say traders betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March may be relying too much on history. The Fed tends to ease monetary policy within about six months of its last rate hike, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1980.
But as Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa noted, a rate cut in March "seems premature," especially after policymakers highlighted the risk that inflation could rebound.
🚗 U.S. retail sales likely rose 0.4% in December, outpacing November's gain, as rising auto sales helped offset weak gasoline demand and modest holiday sales, Bloomberg Economics said. Industrial production is likely to decline month over month.
🇨🇦Canada is cracking down on institutions with research ties to 🇨🇳China, 🇮🇷Iran or 🇷🇺Russia. The government listed foreign institutions, schools and laboratories with ties to entities that could pose risks to national security and said it would not fund sensitive technology research if it was affiliated with them.
🇪🇨With the return of El Niño, 🇧🇷Brazil’s Lula has a new nemesis in the fight against inflation. Extreme weather has sent rice and potato prices soaring, making it harder for the central bank to cut interest rates and for Lula to fulfill his campaign promises of cheap food.
🔺Donald Trump will have a greater impact on markets than the Fed. The Fed's interest rate cuts have largely been priced in, but the former president's campaign luck has not. The risks of a second Trump presidency are difficult to quantify.
🇨🇳China is continuing to undergo historic transformations that are having an impact on the domestic and global economies. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the country's total population will decrease by more than 2 million to 1.41B in 2023, shrinking for the second consecutive year. The decline is also more than double that of 2022, when China's population shrank for the first time since the Great Famine in 1961.
Brief: China has long been a major source of labor and demand, but its birth rate continues to decline as couples delay or decide not to have children. This is despite the government scrapping the one-child policy in 2015 and introducing incentives in 2021 to encourage people to have more children (tax breaks, housing subsidies and longer maternity leave). The high cost of education has also contributed to one of the lowest fertility rates in the world and a trend of urbanization in this traditionally rural country.
There were some bright spots in the latest data overnight, with China's GDP growing by 5.2% in 2023, exceeding the official target of "around 5.0%". Others are unconvinced because the number remains well below historical growth rates and has consistently failed to meet expectations for a strong rebound from the pandemic. Pressures include weak consumer and business confidence, growing debt problems and an escalating housing crisis. Indeed, mainland China's stock market was one of the global anomalies last year, with the benchmark CSI 300 index of major listed stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen sliding around 20% compared with global stock market gains.
Seeking growth: Demographic trends raise questions about whether China will grow old before it gets rich. With deaths outstripping births, Beijing has launched a so-called "silver" economic plan expected to be worth 3 billion yuan (4.2 tons) by 2035, or about 10% of GDP. Services include meal delivery and entertainment services to nursing homes and senior care facilities, as well as industrial complexes that support products for seniors. To encourage development, banks will be attracted to extend credit to businesses participating in the silver economy, while local governments will be able to issue special bonds to finance the transition.
今天会用大篇幅去讲中国，在此之前我们先看看早上都发生了什么？
🧑💼#摩根大通正在招聘。行长#丹尼尔·平托 (Daniel Pinto) 表示，该银行正看到“强劲的增长”，并且“所有要素都预示着强劲的一年”。“我们今年肯定会增加员工。”
🛢️#BP 任命 #MurrayAuchincloss 为其永久首席执行官，四个月后他被临时任命。
💰一家面向富裕投资者的 #Blackstone 房地产信托公司 2023 年亏损 0.5%，这是自 2017 年推出以来最差的回报。
🇨🇭#克里斯蒂娜·拉加德 在#达沃斯 发表讲话，令交易员争相调整降息押注，她表示，欧洲央行宽松政策的激进定价无助于对抗通胀。她确实表示，欧洲央行“可能”会在夏季或夏季降低利率。
🎰一些策略师表示，押注美联储三月份降息的交易员可能过于依赖历史。根据彭博社编制的自 1980 年以来的数据，美联储倾向于在上次加息后约六个月内放松货币政策。但正如法国兴业银行的 Subadra Rajappa 指出的那样，三月份的降息“似乎为时过早”，特别是在政策制定者强调通胀可能反弹的风险之后。
🚗彭博经济研究称，美国 12 月份零售额可能增长 0.4%，超过 11 月份的涨幅，因为汽车销量的增长帮助抵消了疲软的汽油需求和温和的假日销售。工业生产可能逐月下降。
🇨🇦加拿大正在打击与🇨🇳中国、🇮🇷伊朗或🇷🇺俄罗斯有关的研究关系机构。政府列出了与可能对国家安全构成风险的实体有联系的外国机构、学校和实验室，并表示，如果它隶属于这些机构，它不会资助敏感技术研究。
🇪🇨随着厄尔尼诺现象的卷土重来，🇧🇷巴西的卢拉在对抗通货膨胀的斗争中遇到了新的克星。极端天气导致大米和土豆价格飙升，使得央行降息和卢拉更难兑现廉价食品的竞选承诺。
🔺唐纳德·特朗普对市场的影响将超过美联储。美联储降息很大程度上已被消化，但前总统的竞选运气却没有。特朗普再次担任总统的风险很难量化。
🇨🇳中国正在继续发生历史性转变，对国内和全球经济产生影响。据国家统计局数据，2023年全国总人口减少200万以上，至1.41B，连续第二年收缩。下降幅度也比2022年增加了一倍多，当时中国人口自1961年大饥荒以来首次出现萎缩。
简述：中国长期以来一直是劳动力和需求的主要来源国，但由于夫妇推迟或决定不生育，其出生率持续下降。尽管政府在 2015 年取消了独生子女政策，并在 2021 年推出了鼓励人们多生孩子的激励措施（税收减免、住房补贴和更长的产假），但情况仍然如此。高额的教育成本还导致了世界上生育率最低的国家之一，以及这个传统上农村国家的城市化趋势。
隔夜的最新数据中出现了一些亮点，2023年中国GDP增长5.2%，超过了“5.0%左右”的官方目标。其他人则不相信，因为这个数字仍然远低于历史增长率，并且始终未能满足新冠大流行后强劲反弹的预期。压力包括消费者和企业信心疲软、债务问题日益严重以及房地产危机不断升级。事实上，中国大陆股市去年是全球异常情况之一，上海和深圳主要上市股票的基准沪深 300 指数与全球股市涨幅相比下滑了 20% 左右。
寻求增长：人口趋势让人质疑中国是否会未富先老。由于死亡人数超过出生人数，北京推出了所谓的“银色”经济计划，预计到 2035 年，其价值将达到 30 亿元人民币（4.2 吨），约占 GDP 的 10%。服务包括向疗养院和老年人护理机构以及为老年人提供产品支持的工业园区提供送餐和娱乐服务。为了鼓励发展，银行将被吸引向参与银色经济的企业提供信贷，而地方政府将能够发行特别债券来为转型提供资金。
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